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☆ Direct Iran-Israel war could spike oil by $30 to $40, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A direct war between Israel and Iran could lead to substantially higher oil prices through 2025, according to Bank of America. This scenario assumes that Iran's crude oil production falls by up to 1.5 million barrels per day due to the war. Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive trading sessions in the wake of Iran's weekend missile and drone assault against Israel. The bank has penciled in the first Fed interest rate cut in December, and oil prices would come down by then though remain elevated. "Should supply losses build up regionally, it may also prove difficult to access spare production capacity, so oil prices would likely settle above $150/bbl for several months," the bank's analysts forecast.

Persons: Brent, Israel, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Israel, Bank, Federal, bbl, Israeli Locations: Israel, Iran, OPEC, U.S

☆ Here are 3 ways the labor market is showing concerning deterioration underneath strong headline numbers — meaning a recession and stock-market sell-off could sneak up on investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.

Persons: —, Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge

☆ 'You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0': A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.

Persons: —, Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's trip to China last month had promised some economic and trade detente between the two superpowers now at loggerheads. And none of the 222 funds polled expected China economic growth to be any higher next year than this - mirroring a recent Reuters survey of domestic and overseas banks and investors. As these sorts of surveys go, there's an awful lot in there that could spell "peak gloom". Indeed, shorting China equities was deemed the second "most crowded trade" behind long exposure to supercharged Big Tech stocks. Even if the economy turns, political catalysts for a return to China may be slow in coming.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo's, it's, Jamie Dimon, Jay Clayton, Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton, Willem Sels, Mike Dolan, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, . Commerce, Bank of, Big Tech, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, JPMorgan, Investments, The Ontario Teachers, Caisse, Franklin, HSBC Private Banking, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, loggerheads, Wall, Asia, Silicon Valley, Hong Kong, Temasek, Bridgewater, Blackrock, India, Indonesia, Washington, United States

☆ US investor group clinches tax credit deal for $1.5 bln renewable power acquisition
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Isla Binnie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Power-generating Siemens 2.37 megawatt (MW) wind turbines are seen at the Ocotillo Wind Energy Facility California, U.S., May 29, 2020. Invenergy said in a statement it agreed to sell tax credits worth $580 million to Bank of America, and put those funds towards buying 14 projects from American Electric Power (AEP.O). It "creates a financeable transferability product that will be used to scale the growth of renewable energy," Fang said. Analysts at investment bank Credit Suisse have estimated the IRA could lead to the generation of tax credits worth $576 billion by 2031. Private equity firm Blackstone has invested around $4 billion in Invenergy.

Persons: Bing Guan, Joe Biden's, Invenergy, Karen Fang, Fang, Blackstone, Isla Binnie, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Energy Facility, REUTERS, Invenergy, Blackstone, Bank of America, American Electric Power, Bank of, International Energy Agency, Credit Suisse, Treasury Department, Internal Revenue, Canada's, Thomson Locations: Energy Facility California, U.S, Invenergy, Canada's Caisse, Quebec

And with China's post-COVID recovery running into the ground and suffering a deepening real estate bust, western investment curbs throw more sand in the wheels. A question now is whether a retreat of western money from emerging markets at least partly explains both their recent underperformance and that of western government bonds, in which emerging central banks and sovereign funds are heavily invested. The picture has not been much better in aggregate emerging bond indices, even if they have done marginally better than developed world counterparts, and worries over emerging high-yield and property linked bonds are rising. Have global investors high-tailed it from emerging markets already? If western money grows more wary and is increasingly warned off China and other selective emerging investments, will there be a mutual pullback of official emerging money from western bond markets?

Persons: Aly, Joe Biden, Morgan, Biden, crumb, Mike Dolan, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, U.S ., Bank of, Institute for International Finance, Treasury, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Ukraine, Washington, Russia, United States, Beijing, Moscow, Taiwan, Brazil, India, South Africa, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, South Korea

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - Unsure which way the cookie crumbles from here - investors are being tempted to drop the bond. The broadest measures of government and corporate bonds have just stuck in mud. Two-year government bond yields are soaring. With June U.S. jobs growth going up yet another gear, U.S. Treasury yields hit 16-year highs above 5%, German equivalents hit their highest in 15 years and British gilt yields scaled 2008 peaks. For all but longer-term pension and insurance funds or banks, bonds may be neither fish nor fowl for a while to come.

Persons: hasn't, Stocks, midyear underperformance, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: Global, Bloomberg U.S, Treasury, Bank of, JPMorgan, Europe, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson

☆ The Supreme Court's rejection of Biden's student-loan-forgiveness plan will make a looming economic slowdown even worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The repayment poses risks to the economy, with consumer spending likely to be reduced. On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that Biden's plan to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt will be struck down. But they're a weight, it's about 20 million student-loan borrowers that haven't been paying, they'll have to begin paying more or less in September," Zandi said. White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton was asked this week about how the student-loan payment resumption could impact consumer spending. And his concerns are broader than just a contraction in consumer spending.

Persons: —, Joe Biden's, Mark Zandi, haven't, Zandi, that's, Ethan Harris, Morgan Stanley, Olivia Dalton, Dalton, Marshall Steinbaum Organizations: Education Department, Service, Moody's, CNBC, Bank, Bank of, UBS, White, Politico, Family Institute, University of Utah Locations: Wall

☆ Broadcom is a best-in-class chip stock as A.I. drives earnings power, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Broadcom continues to be a "best-in-class" buying opportunity as artificial intelligence drives earnings power, according to Bank of America. Analyst Vivek Arya reiterated a buy rating on Broadcom following a keynote address from CEO Hock Tan at Bank of America's Global Technology Conference. AVGO 1D mountain Broadcom shares 1-day Broadcom shares surged 41% this year. Arya highlighted the potential not only in Broadcom's semiconductors business, but also in its AI ethernet networking platform. "All-in, AI can help AVGO can drive roughly $47/$50+ in EPS by FY24/25E, and we see 5%-6% upside to long-term numbers of AI revenue targets are achieved (see latest June 1 earnings note)," the analyst said.

Persons: Vivek Arya, Hock Tan, Arya, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Broadcom, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global Technology Conference

☆ Tech is the 'most crowded trade' as stock-market bearishness rises to the highest levels so far this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are loading up on mega-cap tech stocks as they turn more bearish, according to Bank of America. The bank said tech is the "most crowded trade" followed by shorting banks and shorting the US dollar. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. According to Bank of America's global fund manager survey, tech stocks are the "most crowded trade" on Wall Street as bearishness towards the broader stock market hits its highest level so far this year. Mega-cap tech stocks have a war chest of cash and a wide moat around their businesses that in the past have enabled steady growth during periods of economic weakness.

☆ Fed faces a nearly impossible task: Keep inflation fighting cred and financial stability
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Some investors worry the Federal Reserve will have a tough time succeeding in wielding the tools to both fight inflation and calm the banking system. During the financial crisis and again in the Covid pandemic , it was able to come to the rescue of the financial system by cutting interest rates to zero. Now, it faces persistently high inflation and is considering another rate hike — a tool that could calm rising prices but add more pain to the banking system. Goldman Sachs economists are among the few who expect the Fed to refrain from hiking Wednesday because of worries about the banking system. "We think Fed officials will therefore share our view that stress in the banking system remains the most immediate concern for now."

☆ Bank of America's Michael Gapen cautions against reading into recession indicators
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of America's Michael Gapen cautions against reading into recession indicatorsMichael Gapen, head of Bank of America's global research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss CPI headline rates moving up with increasing gas prices, passing peak inflation and the potential need for softness in labor market conditions.

☆ Analysis: Bond traders get their swagger back in rate-obsessed markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Lananh Nguyen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Andrew KellyNEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Bond traders are stars again on Wall Street. Fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) traders bolstered bank profits last year despite dreary deal markets. Bond specialists in the $22 trillion Treasuries market are in high demand as the Federal Reserve and other central banks have aggressively raised interest rates over the past two years. After the financial crisis, central bankers in the United States and advanced economies steadied markets by holding interest rates near zero. On Tradeweb Markets Inc's (TW.O) electronic bond trading platforms, average daily volumes rose almost 10% in 2022.

☆ Energy security has been at the forefront of investors' minds this year, says BoFA Global Research
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy security has been at the forefront of investors' minds this year, says BoFA Global ResearchGirish Nair of Bank of America's Global Research says that energy security will "no longer be a major concern" as inflation peaks, China fully reopens and the war in Ukraine eases.

☆ A former top tech exec at Bank of America just launched a new consulting business. Here are 3 key mistakes he said firms are making as they plan for the future.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Bianca Chan | Carter Johnson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sumeet Chabria, a long-time Wall Street tech exec, is launching a network-based consultancy firm. ThoughtLinks will have a wide range of experts who can offer clients bespoke and practical advice. Chabria was most recently the COO of Bank of America's global technology and operations team. Sign up for our newsletter to get the latest stories in hedge funds, PE, fintech, and banking — delivered daily to your inbox. Ahead of the launch of ThoughtLinks, Chabria detailed three of the biggest mistakes financial firms and those in other industries are making when it comes to digital transformation and the future of their workforces.

☆ The latest terrible news for the stock market: The economy is booming again
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Yes, the Fed has slowed activity in certain corners — most notably the housing market — but by and large the economy is still standing. When that happens, investors and consumers better buckle up: There will be more pain ahead for the stock market and the US economy. For a Fed that is trying to slow the economy, this is not a welcome development. At a minimum, it's tough to cut interest rates when the economy is defying expectations. If that's right, we might be seeing yet another false dawn in the stock market.

☆ Wall Street's rising stars admit their biggest career mistakes — from missing out on lucrative bets to taking too much on — and what they learned from them
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Alex Morrell | Alyson Velati | Asia Martin | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +17 min

Vinay Trivedi, a vice president at General Atlantic focusing on the technology sector. I don't think we necessarily transitioned fast enough to how people learn if we're only doing audio from home. - David Israel, 27, vice president at Credit SuisseAngel Pu Shum is a principal within Warburg Pincus's technology group. -Allison Boxer, 29, senior vice president and economist at PIMCONoah Zerance, a vice president with Bank of America's global sustainable-finance group. and the response would be, 'Well, we don't know how we do it yet.

Oct 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeeverWhisper it, but the rebound underway on Wall Street - which is lifting markets and risk appetite everywhere - may have legs. This should put Asian markets on a positive footing on Wednesday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterU.S. earnings are rolling in nicely, with some notable beats like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. The issues that crushed markets this year - rapid tightening of policy and financial conditions, growth fears, sticky inflation and messy fiscal policy - haven't gone away. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

But some analysts note the relative stability of rivals UPS and DHL, and said FedEx's own failure to adapt also contributed to its performance. related investing news Does FedEx's bleak outlook flash a warning signal for investors? Kanarek was among the analysts who noted the mix of factors − internal and external − that likely played a role in FedEx's disappointing results. Confronting realitySome experts see FedEx's performance as an overdue confrontation with market realities coming out of the pandemic, which the company previously failed to acknowledge. If demand continues to slow and manufacturers require less production, Hoexter said FedEx could start to see freight volumes soften too.

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